1898 Study: Did Americans Foresee Revolution?
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Could diplomats sense the French Revolution coming?
Imagine being Benjamin Franklin in 1785, packing your bags to leave France after nine years as America's ambassador. You've mingled with the intellectual elite, attended countless salons, and witnessed the inner workings of French society firsthand. Yet according to this historical analysis, you sailed home with absolutely no sense that one of history's most dramatic revolutions was just four years away. How could someone so well-connected, so observant, completely miss the signs of such monumental change brewing right under his nose?
American diplomats in pre-revolutionary France showed no presentiment of the coming upheaval.
In the 1890s, historians James Farmer and Charles Downer Hazen examined whether prominent Americans living in France before 1789 had any intuitive sense of the revolutionary storm brewing. They focused on Benjamin Franklin, John Jay, and John Adams—men with front-row seats to French high society and politics. This was a small, elite sample that may not reflect broader patterns of historical presentiment.
Even highly intelligent, well-positioned observers can completely fail to sense major historical upheavals that are just around the corner.
Key Findings
- The diplomatic records were remarkably devoid of revolutionary presentiments.
- Franklin, despite his deep immersion in French society and politics, left no written trace of expecting major governmental change.
- His letters praised French life and culture with no hint of impending doom.
- Adams and Jay, who also traveled extensively in France, similarly showed no anticipatory awareness of the revolutionary upheaval that would begin just four years after Franklin's departure.
What Is This About?
The researchers combed through the personal letters, papers, and writings of three American diplomats who lived in France during the decade before the French Revolution. They looked for any hints, predictions, or gut feelings about political upheaval to come. Franklin was their main focus since he spent nine years in France (1776-1785), mixing with intellectuals, politicians, and aristocrats in Paris. They also examined the writings of John Jay and John Adams, who had significant exposure to French society during their diplomatic missions.
Historical analysis of letters and papers from American diplomats in France before the French Revolution to assess whether they showed any anticipatory awareness of coming political upheaval.
No evidence found in diplomatic correspondence of presentiments or expectations of the revolutionary changes that would soon occur in France.
How Good Is the Evidence?
Zero presentiments found across 9 years of Franklin's correspondence—compared to modern studies where 15-30% of people report having strong intuitive feelings before major life changes.
Supporters of presentiment research argue that political events may be too complex and distant for intuitive prediction, unlike personal or immediate dangers that people might sense more readily. Skeptics point to this as evidence that even well-positioned observers with extensive social connections couldn't intuitively detect massive social change. Both sides agree that the absence of written premonitions doesn't definitively settle whether the diplomats had unrecorded intuitions.
Mainstream: Historical analysis confirms that even well-connected observers cannot predict complex political events, supporting rational over intuitive approaches to forecasting. Moderate: The absence of recorded premonitions is interesting but doesn't rule out unwritten intuitions or the possibility that some individuals might be more sensitive to social undercurrents. Frontier: This case study suggests limitations in presentiment abilities for complex, multi-causal events, but doesn't invalidate presentiment research focused on simpler, more immediate phenomena.
This study doesn't prove presentiment doesn't exist—it only shows that these particular diplomats didn't record any revolutionary premonitions. They might have had intuitions they didn't write down, or political upheavals might be too complex for intuitive prediction.
To settle questions about historical presentiment, we'd need systematic analysis across multiple time periods, larger samples of observers, and comparison with documented cases where people did record premonitions before major events. This study meets the criterion of examining available historical documents but lacks the breadth and comparison groups needed for strong conclusions.
When he sailed for home he carried with him, apparently, no presentiment of that eventful future that lay so near across their pathway.
Stance: Skeptical
What Does It Mean?
One of America's most brilliant founding fathers lived through the exact social conditions that would explode into revolution, yet saw nothing coming. It makes you wonder: what massive changes might be brewing in our own time that we're completely blind to?
It's like living next to neighbors for years without sensing their marriage is about to fall apart, even though you see them regularly and the signs might seem obvious in hindsight.
If this historical pattern holds true, it suggests that genuine precognitive abilities would need to be remarkably subtle to have escaped detection throughout recorded history. It also implies that any authentic presentiment research would need to account for humans' natural tendency to miss even obvious warning signs of major changes. The study provides a sobering reminder that extraordinary claims about predicting the future must be measured against our species' well-documented track record of being blindsided by history.
Historical research faces the 'absence of evidence vs. evidence of absence' problem—just because something wasn't written down doesn't mean it didn't happen, but we can only study what was recorded.
Understanding Terms
What This Study Claims
Findings
Franklin carried no presentiment of the eventful future when he departed France
moderateFranklin showed no expectation of considerable governmental change in France despite living there from 1776-1785
moderateNeither Jay nor Adams showed symptoms of impending change in their writings despite Adams traveling across France twice
moderateInterpretations
Franklin would have caught and recorded any revolutionary premonitions in the air given his exposure to French political society
weakThis summary is for general information about current research. It does not constitute medical advice. The scientific interpretation of these results is debated among researchers. If personally affected, please consult qualified professionals.